Craig Getz and Gareth Kantor

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An Early Assessment of the Omicron Covid-19 Variant: Case-Fatality Rates

By Craig Getz and Dr Gary Kantor Executive Summary The fourth wave of the Covid-19 pandemic has been dominated by the Omicron variant. The Omicron case-fatality rate (CFR)[1] has been between 89.7% and 95.2% lower than the case fatality rate of the preceding variants (the original strain, Beta and Delta). Persons testing positive for the Omicron variant are significantly younger than in previous waves[2]. After adjusting for differences in age, gender and chronic health conditions, the Omicron case-fatality rate is between 83.4% and 90.0% lower than the case-fatality rate of the preceding variants. Risk-adjusted case-fatality rates are a proxy for [...]

Considerations on the new COVID variant.

By Craig Getz and Gareth Kantor South Africa is experiencing a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the last ten days, over 140,000 new cases and more than 4,000 COVID-19 related deaths have been reported. The second wave is believed to be driven by the so-called South African variant of SARS-CoV-2 (501.V2). Concerns have been raised that the new variant spreads more rapidly and results in higher levels of morbidity and mortality including amongst the young who have been relatively insulated from severe disease. There are also questions as to whether vaccines, which have been shown to be effective in [...]